Advarsler, Cabin Canyon Recreation Site

Hydrologic Outlook issued July 16 at 1:22PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO ESFGJT An anomalous plume of moisture continues to rotate into Utah and western Colorado this afternoon, with a slight uptick compared to yesterday. The San Juans remain a bullseye in precipitation forecasts this afternoon and again on Friday, maintaining flash flood threats redeveloping each afternoon. However, available moisture is higher moving west into Utah, which leaves the potential for isolated storms to produce hourly rainfall rate of 1-2 in. Therefore, areas of concern remain unchanged from the previous forecast for this afternoon. Storms over the last 24 to 48 hours have only helped prime lower levels of the atmosphere and saturate the ground where rain was observed. Several locations across southwest Colorado reported over 0.5 inches of rain within 30 minutes during yesterday's convection; which is more than sufficient to create issues in our steep, rocky terrain already susceptible to flash flooding. This environment also triggers heightened awareness over recent (or actively burning) fires, due to the burnt ground's inability of absorbing moisture under heavy rainfall. As such, we continue to emphasize the potential for flash flooding and debris flows in this regime. As a reminder: Keep an eye on our forecasts through the end of the week and stay tuned for updated hydro alerts if visiting or if you reside below vulnerable terrain to flash flooding and/or debris flows. Storms across the west develop quickly, leaving little room for lead time in flashy terrain.