Advarsler, Elbow Bank

Tropical Cyclone Statement issued September 24 at 5:42PM EDT by NWS Key West FL HLSKEY This product covers the Florida Keys **Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Monroe Middle Keys * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and Middle Keys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 380 miles south-southwest of Key West FL - 19.7N 84.7W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ As of 5 PM EDT, Tropical Storm Helene was centered about 380 miles south-southwest of Key West, and is moving to the west-northwest near 12 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea towards the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Strengthening is expected over the next thirty- six hours. The system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday, and then become a major hurricane prior to landfall along the Big Bend region of Florida. The storm is expected to have an unusually expansive wind field associated with it as it moves northward through the eastern Gulf, with tropical storm force winds extending out over 200 miles east of the center. Expect frequent squalls across the Keys beginning tonight and continuing through Thursday or Thursday night. The strongest winds are forecast to occur Wednesday evening through midday Thursday, when wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph in squalls will be possible. Sustained tropical storm force winds of 40 mph or greater may arrive in the Lower and Middle Keys as early as Wednesday morning, but are most likely to arrive Wednesday evening. Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level at the shore and lowest elevation areas is expected throughout the Florida Keys on Wednesday night and Thursday, and a Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, will be possible from today through Friday, with the potential for some rainwater flooding of low lying spots. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots. - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include: - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include: - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as in a low-lying or poor drainage area, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see monroecountyem.com - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org - For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see floridadisaster.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Key West FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.